November/s ENSO Anomaly Forecast

Latest consensus ensemble mean forecast for ENSO Region 3.4 this MET winter (D-J-F) is ~-1.8°C...indicating 'strong' La Nina conditions are expected. Five of the six latest model runs are less than or equal to the forecast ensemble mean. Forecast values have delined each month since May (-0.6°C). Last month/s forecast was -1.6°C.