CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 14-APR-18 @ 9 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

19th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Brad Yehl
2nd Place: Don Sutherland
3rd Place: NWS ER WFOs
HM: Herb @MAWS

17th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Don Sutherland
2nd Place: Mitchel Volk
3rd Place: Brad Yehl
HM: TQ
Climo: 5th place

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Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
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18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here

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16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Friday, November 16, 2007

Base Leg...Turning Final


Climo...2007...1988...1970

Time series of SLP CLIMO...current wx...and 'preferred' MEI-analog Novembers.

First half of NOV 2007 SLPs mimic CLIMO/s low pressure signature over E-PAC. Both 'preferred' MEI-based 'La Nina' analog years are similar but they show a lower correlation with 2007...although '70 leans a bit more toward current conditions at end of period over E-PAC.

Current SLP time-series raises a measure of doubt about this year/s developing consensus for the "warm 'n dry" version of Nina-style winters.

Even stronger evidence of how useless analog forecasting can be...can be seen at 500 mb...


500 mb Climo...2007...1988...1970


Early winter at least...lookin/ more-n-more normal as December approaches.

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