Base Leg...Turning Final

Climo...2007...1988...1970
Time series of SLP CLIMO...current wx...and 'preferred' MEI-analog Novembers.

First half of NOV 2007 SLPs mimic CLIMO/s low pressure signature over E-PAC. Both 'preferred' MEI-based 'La Nina' analog years are similar but they show a lower correlation with 2007...although '70 leans a bit more toward current conditions at end of period over E-PAC.

Current SLP time-series raises a measure of doubt about this year/s developing consensus for the "warm 'n dry" version of Nina-style winters.

Even stronger evidence of how useless analog forecasting can be...can be seen at 500 mb...


500 mb Climo...2007...1988...1970

Early winter at least...lookin/ more-n-more normal as December approaches.