Winter '09 / '10 - Coastal Teaser #3

NWP model solutions have been advertising a coastal storm late in the week with GooFuS starting the event a day sooner than the ECMWF.

PNA is forecast to peak near +2 STD...AO currently below -1 STD and decreasing...and the NAO is expected to rise sharply from -3 STD ahead of an event that could turn out to be a fair test of Archambault cool-season regime transition and its impact on NE precipitation (.ppt 3.5 mb)

A 'Call for Forecasts' may be issued late Wednesday with a 10:30PM EST deadline on Thursday...if shorter-range progs indicate a contest-worthy snow storm is likely to occur.

Stratosphere is showing signs of another warming during early FEB as the PV shifts away from the pole to a position over Great Britain where it splits in half with an anti-cyclone centered over extreme NE Alaska / NW Canada.

Oft times...it takes ~3 weeks for these signatures to work their way into the troposhere...heralding a return to bitter cold in the east by month's end featuring arctic air mass intrusions from the north pole.