CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SUN ... 21-JAN-18 @ 8 PM EST

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

19th Annual 'Regular Season'

Interim Standings ... as of Snow Storm #3 here

Snow Storm #3
FINAL Results here

Snow Storm #2
FINAL Results here

Snow Storm #1
FINAL Results here

17th Annual 'Season-total'
Deadline for entries has passed
Forecasters' summary here

Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here
16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Winter '09 / '10 - Snow Storm #2 - Final Results

NEWxSFC Senior forecaster Shillelagh has won this season/s second snowfall forecast contest with a SUMSQ error of 570.6"...a 32% improvement over the average SUMSQ error of 836".  His Z-score was a very strong -1.707.

Shillelagh also placed 1st for 'total absolute error' 47.7" (Z-score:  -1.600) and 2nd for 'average absolute error' with 2.51" per station (19 stations forecast).  He had the lowest station errors @BTV...JFK and perfect forecasts @ABE...EWR.

Congratulations Shillelagh!

2nd Place: millersville_bauers* (SUMSQ error: 663.9"; Z-score: -1.107)
3rd Place: Raven (721.6"; -0.736)
Honorable Mention: Dryslot* (735.4; -0.647)


Full forecast verification...storm summary...and final results at the Contest web site here.


Anonymous said...

I may have set a new world record by missing BTV by 32 inches (not that anyone else did a whole lot better). I think I had the liquid equivalent about right. -- Roger Smith

TQ said...

Right there with you...Roger. Small one had a clue about BTV. Even the MAX station forecast was way underdone.

Could have been the persistant SE wind...isentropioc lifting INVOF the wrap-around warm front...and up-sloping.

Wish BTV reported a more better liquid precipitation report. SN:H2O of 35 seems a little

Anonymous said...

So that means it was about ten inches but fluffed up to 35?

On to the next battle! -- RS