CONTEST STATUS - Updated: FRI...28-NOV-14 @ 11:50 AM EST

Winter '14 / '15 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

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16th Annual 'Regular Season'
STORM #1:
Deadline for entries has passed.
RAW forecasts here.
Forecasts here
Preliminary verifications here

STORM #2
Synoptiscope in VCP32

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14th Annual 'Season-total'
Call for Forecasts!
Deadline 11:59 PM EST SUN 30-NOV-14
Details here
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Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Winter '09 / '10 - Snow Storm #2 - Final Results


NEWxSFC Senior forecaster Shillelagh has won this season/s second snowfall forecast contest with a SUMSQ error of 570.6"...a 32% improvement over the average SUMSQ error of 836".  His Z-score was a very strong -1.707.


Shillelagh also placed 1st for 'total absolute error' 47.7" (Z-score:  -1.600) and 2nd for 'average absolute error' with 2.51" per station (19 stations forecast).  He had the lowest station errors @BTV...JFK and perfect forecasts @ABE...EWR.

Congratulations Shillelagh!



2nd Place: millersville_bauers* (SUMSQ error: 663.9"; Z-score: -1.107)
3rd Place: Raven (721.6"; -0.736)
Honorable Mention: Dryslot* (735.4; -0.647)

*Rookie

Full forecast verification...storm summary...and final results at the Contest web site here.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

I may have set a new world record by missing BTV by 32 inches (not that anyone else did a whole lot better). I think I had the liquid equivalent about right. -- Roger Smith

TQ said...

Right there with you...Roger. Small consolation...no one had a clue about BTV. Even the MAX station forecast was way underdone.

Could have been the persistant SE wind...isentropioc lifting INVOF the wrap-around warm front...and up-sloping.

Wish BTV reported a more better liquid precipitation report. SN:H2O of 35 seems a little high...eh?

Anonymous said...

So that means it was about ten inches but fluffed up to 35?

On to the next battle! -- RS