Winter '09 / '10 - Snow Storm #2 - Final Results
NEWxSFC Senior forecaster Shillelagh has won this season/s second snowfall forecast contest with a SUMSQ error of 570.6"...a 32% improvement over the average SUMSQ error of 836". His Z-score was a very strong -1.707.
Shillelagh also placed 1st for 'total absolute error' 47.7" (Z-score: -1.600) and 2nd for 'average absolute error' with 2.51" per station (19 stations forecast). He had the lowest station errors @BTV...JFK and perfect forecasts @ABE...EWR.
Congratulations Shillelagh!
2nd Place: millersville_bauers* (SUMSQ error: 663.9"; Z-score: -1.107)
3rd Place: Raven (721.6"; -0.736)
Honorable Mention: Dryslot* (735.4; -0.647)
*Rookie
Full forecast verification...storm summary...and final results at the Contest web site here.
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3 comments:
I may have set a new world record by missing BTV by 32 inches (not that anyone else did a whole lot better). I think I had the liquid equivalent about right. -- Roger Smith
Right there with you...Roger. Small consolation...no one had a clue about BTV. Even the MAX station forecast was way underdone.
Could have been the persistant SE wind...isentropioc lifting INVOF the wrap-around warm front...and up-sloping.
Wish BTV reported a more better liquid precipitation report. SN:H2O of 35 seems a little high...eh?
So that means it was about ten inches but fluffed up to 35?
On to the next battle! -- RS
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