Winter '09 / '10 - Cold Expected to Return in February

From Bloomberg...

"A strengthening El Nino pattern in the Pacific Ocean may lead to a colder February than some forecasters are predicting, according to Bastardi.

“El Nino has broken into moderate territory,” Bastardi said. “February could be brutal in the Northeast.”

"Jim Rouiller, the senior energy meteorologist with Planalytics Inc. in Wayne, Pennsylvania, said he expects cold to make a comeback with the arrival of February.

"Most of northern Europe, from the U.K. to Scandinavia, will be colder than average in February and March, said Andover, Massachusetts-based forecaster WSI Corp.

“Winter will be coming back with a vengeance in February,” Todd Crawford, WSI’s chief meteorologist..."

WSI/s NE CONUS forecast issued in November called for above-normal temperatures in DEC and below-normal in JAN.

Bastardi piles on...

"February is going to go down in memory as a month that was as cold and stormy as December,” predicts Joe Bastardi, chief long-range meteorologist for Accuweather. “It might turn out to be one of the coldest Februaries in the last 115 years.”"

Joe D'Aleo adds...

"“The latest GEM [Global Environmental Multiscale] and ECMWF [European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts] model runs are showing colder weather for the remainder of the winter. By the last week of January, we should see cold filling into Canada and then diving back down into the states,”..."

WSI  expects the same in Europe...

"WSI expects temperatures for the approaching period (February-April) to average colder than normal across Scandinavia, UK and most of the mainland, with the exception of parts of Iberia and the Mediterranean states.


"After a brief respite from the bitter cold in late January, this rather extreme winter appears to be gearing up for an encore in February," said WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford. "All of the important weather and climate factors that we monitor suggest winter will be coming back with a vengeance in February. This transition back to much colder temperatures is already showing up in two-week forecasts from our computer models, lending more confidence to the colder forecast trend."

True enough...models have been suggesting strong infusions of arctic air from Siberia as February rolls in.

Caveat Consensus.