CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SUN...20-JUL-14 @ 7:35 PM EDT

Winter '14 / '15 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

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16th Annual 'Regular Season'

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14th Annual 'Season-total'

Saturday, January 2, 2010

Winter '09 / '10 - Snow Storm #2 - The Forecasts



17 entries...including four Rookies...two Interns...one Journeyman...and 10 Senior  forecasters issued 239 station forecasts for this winter/s second contest snow storm.

Forecasts are ranked by storm total precipitation (STP) in ascending order. Blue (red) values are in the 25th (75th) percentile.

Forecasts at the Contest web site.



Consensus for a northern New England event.



Northern annular modes still well below zero providing well-chilled air masses for dendrite production.  Not the typical NE CONUS snow storm morphology where westerlies amplify and long-wave length shortens...evidenced by flat PNA.



Surface LOW forecast to retro-grade and stall in the Gulf of Maine during next 24 hours...which will likely create a tight baroclinic zone and strong forcing from coastal frontogenesis.

Verification period ends 11:59 PM EST SUN 03-JAN-10.
Preliminary storm-total snowfall totals will be posted the evening of MON 04-JAN-10.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Looks like BTV stole an inch from every other station. -- Roger Smith

TQ said...

No one even came close...nor did any NWP chart suggest that outcome.

Happy to see them get it though. Good snow pack keeps the air cold.