CONTEST STATUS - Updated: FRI ... 14-JUL-17 @ 8:30 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
19th Annual 'Regular Season'
Season starts when the first flakes start a'flyin'

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17th Annual 'Season-total'
Entries accepted between 01-NOV-17 and 30-NOV-17
Verification period: 01-DEC-17 through 31-MAR-18

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Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
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18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here
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16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Thursday, December 6, 2012

Winter '12 / '13 - North Atlantic Oscillation - Analog Update

NOV/s NAO index:  -0.58



A 2x2 contingency analysis suggests there/s a 57% probability for the NAO index to average negative during meteorological winter (D-J-F) when NOV/s NAO is negative.

Top analog remains 1998...an el Niño winter.  QBO was fading out and flipped from east to west in JAN.  AO averaged positive.  Not good if it comes to pass given winter/s NAo also averaged positive.

Up one tick are 2008 and 2003...the latter being a good match as AO/s top co-analog along with QBO...and a strong showing by SOI.  ENSO was a warm Nada.  DC measured a paltry 13" and RIC 6".  The good snows that winter were in mainly in south coastal NE and the northern M-A [PVD (119%)...BDR (189%)...BGM (137%)...NYC (155%)...ABE (124%)...EWR (177%)...and RDU (199% from a late season low-latitude thump)].

Season-total snowfall at NEWxSFC Contest stations during Winter '03 / '04 totaled 999"...8" above period-of-record normal (PoRN).

None of the analog years look particularly promising  b/c almost all go positive in JAN and FEB.  Negative NAO falls into the nice-to-have category but it's not all that important for it to be in such a constant state.

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