CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 14-APR-18 @ 9 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

19th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Brad Yehl
2nd Place: Don Sutherland
3rd Place: NWS ER WFOs
HM: Herb @MAWS

17th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Don Sutherland
2nd Place: Mitchel Volk
3rd Place: Brad Yehl
Climo: 5th place

Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here

16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Tuesday, December 4, 2012

Winter '12 / '13 - Arctic Oscillation - Analogs

Analog years selected based on the smallest sum of square errors between current year/s monthly AO index and historical values since 1950.

Strongest analog year remains 2003 with the NOV update.
The same year is the top ranked analog for SOI...QBO...and NAO.

The 2x2 contingency table analysis suggests a 76% probability for meteorological winter/s AO to be negative.

Season-total snowfall at NEWxSFC Contest stations during Winter '03 / '04 totaled 999"...8" above period-of-record normal (PoRN).

AO during winter '03 / '04 averaged -0.983.  DEC/s AO of 0.265 was followed by -1.686 in JAN and -1.258 in FEB.

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