Wednesday, January 17, 2018

Winter '17 / '18 - Snow Storm #3: The Forecasts

Rookie -
Intern 1
Journey -
Senior 10
GOVT 1
PWSP 1
TOT 13

All forecasts posted to the Contest/s web site.
Direct link:  http://www.newx-forecasts.com/NEWxSFC_19/storms/storm3_forecasts_17Jan18.htm
Forecasts ranked by their verification period storm-total precipitation (STP).



BLUE ==> 25th percentile
RED ==> 75th percentile
White STP and 4cast cells range between the 25th and 75th percentile

NWS ER WFOs (GOVT)  and PWSP (Private Weather Service Provider) forecasts derived from public issuances current at the deadline.  Adjustments were made by NEWxSFC to account for snowfall measured on 16-JAN-18.

Heaviest snowfall (>= 4") consensus along and to the right of BGR - PWM - ORH - BDL - ALB - CON - BGR.  Snow cone expected at CON.  All forecast stations get a share of the wealth from this barely contest-worthy storm.

Upside down tele-connections indexes prove once again their lack of importance for observing more than nuisance amounts of frozen precipitation at first-order observing stations in the M-A and NE.

Median station forecasts (Excel 2013 - Power Map)

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