CPC Outlook - Update - Winter '08 / '09

CPC/s latest 90-day outlook for NEWxSFC/s forecast area this coming meteorological winter (D-J-F) continues with its 'equal chances' theme from last month/s outlook.

Equal chances? Is that the best they can do?

In other words...the odds are 50 / 50. The same odds you have when flipping a fair coin. For this we pay how much?

Probability theory considers 50% as a 'good' chance of getting a desired outcome...so there/s no reason...yet...to abandon all hope for a memorable season.

The Climate Prediction Center...located in the World Weather Building...SE of Washington...DC...uses many tools to develop the 90-day outlook. CPC forecasters...or maybe they/re known as 'outlookers' inside the WWB...consider ENSO...climatological departures from persistence trends in 10-year temperature and 15-year precipitation periods...Madden-Julian Oscillation voodoo(MJO)...teleconnection indexes such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)...Pacific-North American (PNA)...and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)...along with current soil moisture anomalies...razz-ma-tazz statistical tools...and last but not least...the dynamic Climate Forecast System (CFS) model.

ENSO is seen currently as neutral by CPC and it/s expected to remain that way throughout the upcoming winter...even though...NCEP/s own SST forecasts maintain slightly negative anomalies in Nino 3.4.

A much more detailed forecast discussion from the CPC is here.