CONTEST STATUS - Updated: FRI ... 23-MAR-18 @ 6 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

19th Annual 'Regular Season'
- Interim Standings ... as of Snow Storm #7 here
- Forecaster Storm Stats ... as of Snow Storm #7 here

- Snow Storm #8: 21-MAR-18
The Forecasts! here
Preliminary STP verifications here

- Snow Storm #7: 12-MAR-18
FINAL Results here
Winning forecast issued by: iralibov

17th Annual 'Season-total'
Deadline for entries has passed
Forecasters' summary here

Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here

16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

How Much for Philly? - Scourge of Conventional Wisdom

A question for the ages.

John Bolaris...meteorologist for PHL/s FOX-TV affillite...issued his Winter '08 / '09 outlook today.
"...December...expect below normal temperatures with above normal snowfall.
...January...above normal temperatures with below normal snowfall.
February and March could be vicious, with below normal temperatures with (sic) above normal snowfall."
Bottom line: group think.

What is it with these TV-WX guys (gals) anyway? Begs the question about needing so many 'forecasters' when they all essentially parrot the same narrative.

Of particular note...JB/s unsupported claim that "(a) negative NAO means more snow; a positive NAO means less snow."

An analysis of PHL/s daily snowfall events since 1950 - a shortened period-of-record necessitated by data availability for AO...NAO...and PNA - finds there/s a greater probability for any amount of snow when NAO is positive and AO is negative.

The only time -NAO is the preferred mode over +NAO is for events that produce 6" to almost 9" snowfalls.

There are equal chances that a +NAO or -NAO drops at least 9" but less than a foot.

By a 2:1 margin...+NAO and AO of either sign is the favored mode for snowfalls of 12" or more.

It/s pretty obvious someone didn/t get the memo about NAO/s effect of snowfall in Philly.

Snowfall data courtesy Utah University Climate Center.

No comments: