How Much for Philly? - Scourge of Conventional Wisdom
A question for the ages.
John Bolaris...meteorologist for PHL/s FOX-TV affillite...issued his Winter '08 / '09 outlook today.
What is it with these TV-WX guys (gals) anyway? Begs the question about needing so many 'forecasters' when they all essentially parrot the same narrative.
Of particular note...JB/s unsupported claim that "(a) negative NAO means more snow; a positive NAO means less snow."
An analysis of PHL/s daily snowfall events since 1950 - a shortened period-of-record necessitated by data availability for AO...NAO...and PNA - finds there/s a greater probability for any amount of snow when NAO is positive and AO is negative.
The only time -NAO is the preferred mode over +NAO is for events that produce 6" to almost 9" snowfalls.
There are equal chances that a +NAO or -NAO drops at least 9" but less than a foot.
By a 2:1 margin...+NAO and AO of either sign is the favored mode for snowfalls of 12" or more.
It/s pretty obvious someone didn/t get the memo about NAO/s effect of snowfall in Philly.
Snowfall data courtesy Utah University Climate Center.
John Bolaris...meteorologist for PHL/s FOX-TV affillite...issued his Winter '08 / '09 outlook today.
"...December...expect below normal temperatures with above normal snowfall.Bottom line: group think.
...January...above normal temperatures with below normal snowfall.
February and March could be vicious, with below normal temperatures with (sic) above normal snowfall."
What is it with these TV-WX guys (gals) anyway? Begs the question about needing so many 'forecasters' when they all essentially parrot the same narrative.
Of particular note...JB/s unsupported claim that "(a) negative NAO means more snow; a positive NAO means less snow."
An analysis of PHL/s daily snowfall events since 1950 - a shortened period-of-record necessitated by data availability for AO...NAO...and PNA - finds there/s a greater probability for any amount of snow when NAO is positive and AO is negative.
The only time -NAO is the preferred mode over +NAO is for events that produce 6" to almost 9" snowfalls.There are equal chances that a +NAO or -NAO drops at least 9" but less than a foot.
By a 2:1 margin...+NAO and AO of either sign is the favored mode for snowfalls of 12" or more.
It/s pretty obvious someone didn/t get the memo about NAO/s effect of snowfall in Philly.
Snowfall data courtesy Utah University Climate Center.
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