13 forecasters...including 2 rookies...for the season/s sixth storm. Forecasts in the table above are ranked by expected storm-total snowfall.
Station forecasts here.
Typical Winter '08 / '09 snowfall distribution favoring northern forecast stations.
+PNA delivering the cold.
Evolution of coastal front is a key element in the forecast.
Poor consensus today between NAM and GooFuS concerning Sunday's snow storm over the forecast area.
GooFuS solutions depict more mid-level energy digging deeper into the eastern trof...which excites cyclogenesis along the southeast coast and a second snow storm on Monday.
NAM is more progressive as it shunts the bulk of its impulse into New England.
Given the present uncertainty...the verification period for this event will be be restricted to 12:01 AM EST to 11:59 PM EST on Sunday. This leaves the door open for a 'Call for Forecasts' on Saturday for Snow Storm #7.
Make the best forecast and you/ll win one month of FREE access to StormVista GOLD. Details here.
Deadline: 10:30 PM EST Saturday...17 January 2009
Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Verification period begins: 12:01 AM EST Sunday...18 January 2009
Verification period ends: 11:59 PM EST Sunday...18 January 2009
Enter your forecast here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'
More prizes will be awarded at the end of winter for the best over-all forecaster. Details here.
As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or annoying requests for personal information to enter.
If you are making your first forecast this year or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox) before entering a forecast.
Image: March 1888 Blizzard - NYC
After five snow storms... donsutherland1 holds the lead... shanabe holds onto second...and Donald Rosenfeld lunges from sixth into third.
Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule…forecasters who have entered at least four forecasts are included in this interim summary.
Forecasters who will be eligible for Interim Standings ranking...if they enter a forecast for Snow Storm #6:
Senior forecaster emoran made the best synoptic-scale forecast for NEWxSFC/s fifth snow storm. His 23 station forecast verified with 68.8 SUMSQ error points (Z-Score = -1.352)...which was a 66% improvement over the average error of 205".
He hit the trifecta with lowest Total Absolute Error (29.9") and Average Absolute Error (1.3"). His 63% R-SQ score...a measure of how well a forecast captures the variability of the observed snowfall... ranked second.
This is emoran/s second...first place finish this season.
Emoran had the lowest station errors @ HYA PVD BDR ALB MDT DCA.
Preliminary storm-total snowfalls from CDUS41...PNS...and CF6 bulletins for Saturday and Sunday.
One new daily record.
BGM - 5.5" (5.3"; 1957)
ORH/s 3.1" value is suspect and should be rejected based on vicinity SN:H2O and spotter report, and empirically-derived SN:H2O estimates.
Vicinity SN:H2O calculations were ~14:1...which suggests ORH storm-total snowfall was 4.6".
A Worcester ham radio spotter reported 4.8".
KORH/s SN:H2O...based on 0.33" liquid precipitation...is 9.4". Surface temperatures during the storm ranged between 16° and 19°...which supports a SN:H20...based on empirical evidence...of 20:1 or 6.5".
KORH is notorious for underreporting snowfall b/c their SN:H2O is always 10:1.
Recommend KORH/s STP be adjusted to 4.6" for this event.
Please report errors in Remarks.
Final results and storm summary Tuesday evening.
After four snow storms...donsutherland1 moves into the lead...trailed by shanabe...who moved up from 5th and dmcguriman holding in third.
Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule…forecasters who have entered at least three forecasts are included in this interim summary.
Full interim forecaster statistics table and charts here.
Forecaster storm summary data here.
SUMSQ errors for each contest snow storm are normalized with a 'Z-score'...then averaged to compute the standings. Forecasters who have entered at least 2/3 of all snow storm contests are included in the standings.
If a forecaster has participated in more than two-thirds of all snow storm contests...then Z-scores from two-thirds of their best forecasts are used to calculate Interim and Final standings. Same idea as dropping the lowest quiz score before the final grade is computed.
Previous Interim summary here.
Senior forecaster 'shanabe' made the best synoptic-scale forecast for NEWxSFC/s fourth snow storm. His forecast verified with 36.7 'SUMSQ error' points (Z-Score = -1.201) which was a 60% improvement over the average of all forecasters 'SUMSQ errors' of 91.
He completed the trifecta with a tie for the lowest 'Total Absolute Error' (13.4") and 'Average Absolute Error' (1.03"). His 'storm-total precipitation (STP) forecast for 31" had an error of 1.6".
Shanabe had the lowest station errors @ PWM CON BDR ALB EWR DCA and made a perfect forecast @ BDL.
19 forecasters...including 5 rookies...for the season/s fifth storm.
Station forecasts here.
First time in a while the distribution of heaviest snowfall has shifted toward southern New England and mid-Atlantic forecast stations.
Preferred teleconnection states still nowhere to be found.
Verification began last night at 12:01 AM EST. Snowfall is expected to continue into Sunday afternoon over extreme northeastern stations. Preliminary storm-total snowfalls may be available for posting Sunday evening. Final results could be available on the web site as early as Monday evening but maybe not until Tuesday evening should final storm-total snowfall data be delayed.
Preliminary storm-total snowfalls from CDUS41...PNS...and CF6 bulletins for Wednesday and Thursday.
No new daily records.
Please report errors in Remarks.
Final results and storm summary Saturday.
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