Forecast Credibility

Wx web logs...forums...and message boards were all aflame yesterday with full-throated forecasts for a 'significant' snowfall in advance of the winter storm coming out of the GOM this evening.

Amateurs and pros alike hoisted 48-60 hour forecasts for wide swaths of 4-8" (meets and exceeds NWS warning criteria for heavy snow)...pockets of 6-12"...and 8+".

In light of more recent information...these collectively absurd forecasts have little chance of verifying.

Back in the day...forecasters knew better than to post snowfall forecasts with such long lead times. And they knew better not to segue the MR with the SR. Details portrayed in the the MR are pure fantasy. Timing...intensity...centers of circulation depicted in the MR are purely guidance of impending events. Same is often true about the SR progs...but they are much closer to the truth.

The lead time for a snowfall forecast with the best chance of verifying should be issued no more than 24 hours before the event. The current state of NWP is such that timing...intensity...and centers of circulation is too crude to attempt a forecast at such an extended time range.

A forecaster/s credibility needs to be preserved if they are to be taken seriously. Issuing a snowfall forecast more than two days before the first flakes fly is frought with danger and should be always be avoided.