CONTEST STATUS - Updated: FRI ... 23-MAR-18 @ 6 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

19th Annual 'Regular Season'
- Interim Standings ... as of Snow Storm #7 here
- Forecaster Storm Stats ... as of Snow Storm #7 here

- Snow Storm #8: 21-MAR-18
The Forecasts! here
Preliminary STP verifications here

- Snow Storm #7: 12-MAR-18
FINAL Results here
Winning forecast issued by: iralibov

17th Annual 'Season-total'
Deadline for entries has passed
Forecasters' summary here

Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here

16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Saturday, January 13, 2007

Going Negative - Epilogue

The most basic statistical analysis -- the average - for 30 NEWxSFCs further supports the hypothesis that it isn/t nec-es-sarily a good thing to 'go negative' if you want more of what exciting winter storms are all about...which is more snow.

AVG Contest SNFL (n = 30) when...
AO - Negative (Positive) 10.7" (13.2")
NAO - Negative (Positive) 10.2" (11.4")
PNA - Negative (Positive) 11.9" (11.7")

EEBE, max avg station snfl matters not if PNA is plus or much as it matters whether the NAO or AO are negative (less snfl) or positive (more snfl).

Cross tab analysis
Another way to see if 'going negative' benefits winter wx would be to look at the avg snfl for each teleconnection index's positive and negative it relates (cross tab) to the two phases of the other two indexes.

MAX avg station snfl (13.2") occurs when AO is positive.
Second ranked MAX avg snfl (12.7") occurs when PNA and AO are positive.

MIN avg station snfl (7.7") occurs when AO is negative and NAO is positive.
Second ranked MIN avg snfl (8.5") occurs when PNA and AO are negative.

Torture the numbers long enough and they/ll confess to anything.

(Ed. - 'light of day' corrections.)

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