CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 14-APR-18 @ 9 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

19th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Brad Yehl
2nd Place: Don Sutherland
3rd Place: NWS ER WFOs
HM: Herb @MAWS

17th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Don Sutherland
2nd Place: Mitchel Volk
3rd Place: Brad Yehl
Climo: 5th place

Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here

16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Thursday, January 4, 2007

QBO - December '06

Nine months into its positive phase...the latest QBO comes in a solid 6.21.

Still a relatively strong value...a smidge more than +1 SD above the long-term monthly mean for December of well as being in the 77th percentile. December/s QBO ain/t no slacker.

When QBO is W...the PV is deeper and stronger. Considering the PV has been over the north-central PAC for weeks during a moderate +ENSO...this strongly suggests the westerly stratospheric winds along the equator played a major role in maintaining the anomalously strong PAC jet and the near continuous flux of mild PAC air masses over the CONUS.

Now that the PV is shifting quickly E to a position over north-central CN...the temperature gradient driving the jet should shift into western CN where a hi-amp...+ENSO enhanced PNA-ridge is expected to develop. The thermal contrast won/t be as strong as it was when the PV was over the PAC...but strong enough to excite the polar jet and drive arctic air masses into the lower 48.

We/re coming to the end of the QBO/s west the stratosphere/s zonally-averaged wind speed should continue its decline during the remainder of '07. As QBO decreases during the second half of winter...the PV will weaken...which would allow more opportunities for more polar cold to encroach upon lower latitudes.

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