Locked & Loaded

A four Rossby-wave configuration is stationary...meaning once established...it/s not going anywhere...anytime soon. Arctic cold in the E has arrived and the ECMWF/s D+10 prog suggests it/s inclined to take its shoes off and sit a'spell.

In the run-up to D+10...storms are advertised to continue their explosions over the open waters of the wrn ATL due in large part to the rapid succession of upstream kickers. The interval btwn these nrn stream short waves is too short to allow any one of them to dig in its heels over land; however...


...the ECMWF/s D+7 prog shows an important break in the wave train interval that would allow a different scenario to evolve over the EC during the first week of February...just in time for the full Snow Moon.

As the short wave climbs the AK ridge...the ridge amplifies. A second short wave has already rounded the crest and is poised to descend into the LW trof on a direct-deposit trajectory toward the wrn GOM. Unlike previous short waves that are being abruptly kicked downstream and subsequently well offshore into the wrn ATL...this one has ample time and opportunity to dig deep into the base of the full-latitude trof b/c the upstream short wave is still ascending.

The increasing amplitude of the AK ridge has the downstream effect of shortening the wavelength over CONUS...which would allow cyclogenesis to occur much closer to the EC than earlier cyclone deepenings.