CONTEST STATUS - Last update: FRI ... 14-JUL-17 @ 8:30 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
19th Annual 'Regular Season'
Season starts when the first flakes start a'flyin'

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17th Annual 'Season-total'
Entries accepted between 01-NOV-17 and 30-NOV-17
Verification period: 01-DEC-17 through 31-MAR-18

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Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
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18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here
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16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Monday, March 5, 2007

Contest # 3 - Final Results


Full forecast verification and results summary at the web site.

Follow the links to 'Forecasts - Contest #3' and 'Results - Contest #3.'

Forecasters: 10
9 veterans
1 rookie

Station forecasts: 123
Average stations per forecaster: 12
Stations with observed snowfall: 11

Storm-total precipitation (STP), all stations
Forecast
Minimum: 27" (mitchel volk)
Consensus Median: 50.9"
Maximum: 94.75" (Donald Rosenfeld)

Observed: 32.35"
Max single station: 9.5" CAR
Shutout: HYA...BDR...ISP...JFK...ABE...MDT...PHL...ACY...EWR...BWI...IAD...DCA...SBY...RIC...
ORF...and RDU

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Storm #3 - Results Summary

Congratulations to the Winners!

1st Place - bubbler86
SUMSQ Error: 17.3
SUMSQ - Z: -1.164
STP: 3.65 (1st)
TAE: 10.5" (1st)
AAE: 0.91" (1st)

2nd Place - Raven
SUMSQ Error: 33.1"
SUMSQ - Z: -1.009
STP: 4.65" (2nd)
TAE: 15.75" (2nd)
AAE: 1.58" (2nd)

3rd Place - TQ
SUMSQ Error: 75.3"
SUMSQ - Z: -0.825
STP: 15.7" (4th)
TAE: 19.7" (4th)
AAE: 1.79" (4th)

Honorable Mention - mitchel volk
SUMSQ Error: 69.3"
SUMSQ - Z: -0.653
STP: 5.35" (3rd)
TAE: 19.15" (3rd)
AAE: 3.19" (8th)

SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm total precipitation
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error

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