CONTEST STATUS - Last update: THU ... 20-APR-17 @ 9:40 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

19th Annual 'Regular Season'

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17th Annual 'Season-total'

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Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
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18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here
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16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Saturday, March 17, 2007

Contest # 4 - Teleconnections


So much for the conventional wisdom about needing +PNA...-AO...or -NAO to get good snows in the NE CONUS.



AO for this historic snowstorm...where six daily snowfall records were broken...is more than 2 standard deviations above normal. NAO is +1.5 STD and PNA is normal.

Everything else being equal...all you really need is amplification of the long wave in a ridge-W and trof-E flow regime. Shorten the wavelength and Sutcliff/s self-development process kicks in...which takes care of the rest.


Click image to animate.

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