CONTEST STATUS - Last update: FRI ... 14-JUL-17 @ 8:30 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
19th Annual 'Regular Season'
Season starts when the first flakes start a'flyin'

17th Annual 'Season-total'
Entries accepted between 01-NOV-17 and 30-NOV-17
Verification period: 01-DEC-17 through 31-MAR-18

Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here
16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Wednesday, March 21, 2007

Interim Standings

After four storms...

Click image to enlarge.

First Place: don sutherland1 with an average SUMSQ Z-score of -0.883
Second Place: herb@maws -0.705
Third Place: Raven -0.675

The second interim summary finds donsutherland1 holding onto 1st place. Herb@maws moves into 2nd from 3rd. Raven jumps from 5th to 3rd.

A data table with the complete interim standing statistics...including Sum Squared Error (SUMSQ)...Storm Total Precipitation (STP)...Total Absolute Error (TAE)...Average Absolute Error (AAE)..and R-Squared (RSQ) at the web site.

To qualify for ranking in the interim standings...forecasters must have entered at least 2/3 of all contests to date. If a forecaster has entered all four contests...only the best three forecasts are used to calculate an average normalized Z-score.

The chart shows the distribution of forecaster SUMSQ Z-Scores (plum) and Total Absolute Error Z-Scores(cyan). Lower (higher) Z-Scores indicate better (worse) forecasts compared to all other forecasts made for each storm.

A Z-Score of 0 means the forecaster's error was equal to the average of all forecast errors. A Z-Score of -1 (+1) means the forecaster's error was 1 standard deviation below (above) the average of all forecast errors.

No comments: