CONTEST STATUS - Updated: WED ... 13-DEC-17 @ 8:30 PM EST

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
19th Annual 'Regular Season'
Snow Storm #1
Synoptiscope in VCP32

17th Annual 'Season-total'
Deadline for entries has passed
Forecasters' summary here

Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here
16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Thursday, March 8, 2007

Interim Standings

After three contests comes the first opportunity to post interim standings. Forecasters must have entered at least two of the three contests held so far this season to be included. If a forecaster entered all three contests...scores from the two best forecasts are used to calculated an average normalized SUMSQ score.

First Place: Donsutherland1 with an average SUMSQ Z-Score of -0.925.
Second Place: Bubbler86 -0.882
Third Place: Herb@MAWS -0.751

A data table with the complete interim standing statistics...including Sum Squared Error (SUMSQ)...Storm Total Precipitation (STP)...Total Absolute Error (TAE)...Average Absolute Error (AAE)..and R-Squared (RSQ) at the web site.

Click on image to enlarge.

There appears to be a tie for 3rd but Herb@MAWS leads TQ by 0.00007.

The chart shows the distribution of forecaster SUMSQ Z-Scores (plum) and Total Absolute Error Z-Scores(cyan). Lower (higher) Z-Scores indicate better (worse) forecasts compared to all other forecasts made for each storm.

A Z-Score of 0 means the forecaster's error was equal to the average of all forecast errors. A Z-Score of -1 (+1) means the forecaster's error was 1 standard deviation below (above) the average of all forecast errors.

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