CONTEST STATUS - Last update: FRI ... 14-JUL-17 @ 8:30 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
19th Annual 'Regular Season'
Season starts when the first flakes start a'flyin'

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17th Annual 'Season-total'
Entries accepted between 01-NOV-17 and 30-NOV-17
Verification period: 01-DEC-17 through 31-MAR-18

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Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
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18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here
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16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Monday, March 19, 2007

Contest # 4 - Results



Full forecaster verification table and contest results at the web site.

Forecasters: 11
9 veterans
2 rookies

Station forecasts: 235
Average stations per forecaster: 21
Stations with observed snowfall: 23

Storm-total precipitation (STP), all stations
Forecast
Minimum: 67.5" (Donald Rosenfeld)
Consensus Median: 132.25"
Maximum: 184.5" (mitchel volk)

Observed: 146.45"
Max single station: 16.9" ORH
Shutout: RIC...ORF...and RDU

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Storm #4 - Results Summary

1st Place - donsutherland1
SUMSQ Error: 128.5"
SUMSQ - Z: -0.799
STP: 15.05 (4th)
TAE: 38.95" (1st)
AAE: 1.69" (1st)

2nd Place - ilibov
SUMSQ Error: 129.1"
SUMSQ - Z: -0.796
STP: 7.75" (2nd)
TAE: 44.25" (2nd)
AAE: 1.92" (2nd)

3rd Place - herb@maws
SUMSQ Error: 163.6"
SUMSQ - Z: -0.615
STP: 22.15" (5th)
TAE: 48.45" (6th)
AAE: 2.11" (5th)

Honorable Mention - bruced
SUMSQ Error: 167.7"
SUMSQ - Z: -0.593
STP: 0.20" (1st)
TAE: 44.5" (3rd)
AAE: 1.93" (3rd)

Congratulations to the Winners!

SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm total precipitation
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error

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