CONTEST STATUS - Last update: FRI ... 14-JUL-17 @ 8:30 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
19th Annual 'Regular Season'
Season starts when the first flakes start a'flyin'

---
17th Annual 'Season-total'
Entries accepted between 01-NOV-17 and 30-NOV-17
Verification period: 01-DEC-17 through 31-MAR-18

----------------------------------------------------
Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
----------------------------------------------------
18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here
---
16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Sunday, April 1, 2007

6th Annual Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest - Results


Raven2001 finished in 1st place with a Total Absolute Error (TAE) of 143" (1.935 standard deviations [STD] below the Consensus forecast/s TAE of 457"). Raven2001/s average absolute error (AAE) of 5.7" was a 58% improvement over Period-of-Record Normal (PORN) AAE of 13.6". His seasonal forecast also ranked 1st for 'number of stations' (12 out of 25; 48%) having the lowest absolute forecast errors (CAR...BGR...PWM...CON...PVD...BDR...BDL...ACY...BWI...SBY...RIC...and RDU).

This is Raven2001/s first...first-place finish having entered previous year/s Contests in '02-'03 and '03-'04.

As this year/s top-ranked forecaster...Raven2001 is awarded "The Snow Booklet" by Nolan J. Doesken and Arthur Judson...or if he so chooses...a one-of-a-kind...hand-made...glitter-coated paper crown...expertly crafted to his exact...inflated head size by one of my two grand-daughters.


Ira Libov finished in 2nd place with a TAE of 168" (1.778 STD below Consensus) and an AAE of 6.7" (50% improvement over PORN). Ira Libov/s seasonal forecast also ranked 2nd for 'number of stations' (8; 32%) having the lowest absolute forecast errors (BOS...ORH...ALB...BGM...ABE...MDT... EWR...and ORF).

This winter is Ira Libov/s first entry in the Season-total Snowfall Forecasting Contest.


GaryM finished in 3rd place with a TAE of 230" (1.396 STD below Consensus) and an AAE of 9.2" (32% improvement over PORN). GaryM/s forecast had the lowest absolute forecast error @ DCA.


Honorable Mention goes to this season/s defending champion...Donald Rosenfeld. His TAE was 264" (1.192 STD below Consensus) and AAE was 10.5" (22% better than PORN). Donald Rosenfeld had the lowest absolute forecast error @ BGR.


Congratulations to this winter/s Top Forecasters and thanks to everyone who entered the Contest! Hope to see you all next year.

Complete Results at the web site.

Follow the link to Season-total Contest 'Results' to see this report...which includes a several data tables of summary verification statistics.

Follow the link to Season-total Contest 'Forecasts' to see the complete table of forecaster/s station verifications.

No comments: