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Saturday, April 14, 2007

Contest # 6 - Canceled

Today/s NWP guidance strongly suggests too few stations are likely to get too little snowfall to warrant a forecasting contest.

Contest # 6 is canceled.

1 comment:

TQ said...

May have gone the wrong way by throwing tin the towel on #6...given what NWS expects over the forecast area.

ALB: 1 - 3 with additional light accums Mon and Tue
BGM: 4 - 8 with additional light accums Mon and Tue
BTV: 6 - 12
CON: 3 - 6
ORH: 2 - 4
CAR: 1 - 3
BGR: 4 - 6
PWM: 2 - 5

WFOs certainly have more better ways to slice and dice the NWP output but the time-height cross sections I reviewed all had much too much warm air in the low levels to support the snow-total snowfalls shown above.

HPC/s 'heavy snowfall' discussion issued Saturday was also considered in the decision to cancel. Their graphics pretty much excluded all but a few of the Contest/s forecast stations.

Always hate to miss a good event. Have a bad feeling this may well be one of them.