Contest # 5 - Status

(Updated below)

Today/s 12z Eta...and its alter egos...NAM...WRF...WTF pointing toward a decent late-season contest event with about a dozen stations in play across nrn M-A and SNE. F-columns are cold aloft at cloud-top and wet wet wet in the 850-700 mb layer.

Look at the Allentown f-sounding shortly after entry deadline fer crissakes! That/s some impressive deep-layer veering and rocket-inflow in the lower levels. Even better thumping profiles to the N and E.

Had my doubts late in the weekend about whether this was another in along series of fantasy storms as the GooFuS quickly backed off its early / colder solns. Not all that different today but real wx forecasters go with the model that gives them the desired outcome...so for the time being...DaGoof is discarded.

GO / no GO decision coming Tuesday evening.

Update
Tuesday/s 12z Eta/NAM/WRF/WTF still promising a decent contest storm for Thursday over portions of NE. Several stations are no longer in the running (ABE...HYA...and PWM) but enough remain. Final GO / No GO decision awaits Wednesday/s 0z run.