CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SUN ... 21-JAN-18 @ 8 PM EST

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

19th Annual 'Regular Season'

- Interim Standings ... as of Snow Storm #3 here

- Snow Storm #4
Synoptiscope in VCP32

- Snow Storm #3
FINAL Results here

- Snow Storm #2
FINAL Results here

17th Annual 'Season-total'
Deadline for entries has passed
Forecasters' summary here

Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here
16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Sunday, April 15, 2007

Interim Standings

Click image to enlarge.

To be ranked in the latest Interim Standings...forecasters must have entered at least four forecasts to be eligible under the 'two-thirds' rule.

After five storms...
First Place: Donsutherland1 with an average SUMSQ Z-score of -0.786
Second Place: Raven -0.749
Third Place: TQ -0.653

The third interim summary finds donsutherland1 maintaining his hold on 1st place. Raven moves up a notch to second. TQ jumps from 5th to 3rd.

A data table with the complete interim standing statistics...including Sum Squared Error (SUMSQ)...Storm Total Precipitation (STP)...Total Absolute Error (TAE)...Average Absolute Error (AAE)..and R-Squared (RSQ) at the web site.

The chart shows the distribution of forecaster SUMSQ Z-Scores (plum) and Total Absolute Error Z-Scores(cyan). Lower (higher) Z-Scores indicate better (worse) forecasts compared to all other forecasts made for each storm.

A Z-Score of 0 means the forecaster's error was equal to the average of all forecast errors. A Z-Score of -1 (+1) means the forecaster's error was 1 standard deviation below (above) the average of all forecast errors.

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