Contest # 5 - Results

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Full forecaster verification table and contest results at the web site.

Forecasters: 10
8 veterans
2 rookies

Station forecasts: 110
Average stations per forecaster: 11
Stations with observed snowfall: 11

Storm-total precipitation (STP), all stations
Forecast
Minimum: 32.5” (shanabe)
Consensus Median: 39.75”
Maximum: 65.8” (Donald Rosenfeld)

Observed: 27.35”
Max single station: 11.4” CAR
Shutout: HYA…BDR…ISP…JFK…ABE…MDT…PHL…ACY…EWR…BWI…IAD…DCA…SBY…RIC…ORF…and RDU

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Storm #5 - Results Summary

1st Place - TQ
SUMSQ Error: 43.9”
SUMSQ - Z: -1.065
STP: 13.15 (6th)
TAE: 17.85” (1st)
AAE: 1.79” (2nd)

2nd Place - Raven
SUMSQ Error: 47.9”
SUMSQ - Z: -0.971
STP: 10.15” (4th)
TAE: 17.95” (2nd)
AAE: 1.99” (4th)

3rd Place - shanabe
SUMSQ Error: 58.0”
SUMSQ - Z: -0.734
STP: 5.2” (1st)
TAE: 20.6” (4th)
AAE: 1.72” (1st)

Honorable Mention - Mitchel Volk
SUMSQ Error: 64.0”
SUMSQ - Z: -0.596
STP: 11.65” (2nd)
TAE: 19.25” (3rd)
AAE: 3.21” (10th)

Congratulations to the Winners!

SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm total precipitation
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error