Coming Attractions

Various analyses and LR forecasts for early FEB abound the Internets. Most have a decidedly warm flavor yet today/s 12z GooFuS may be the first indication those outlooks wil turn on their collective heads.

LR progs over the past several days have shown a triad of low latitude storms rising from the Gulf 'o Mexico with plus-size warm sectors full of moist air assaulting the Northeast and mid-Atlantic regions. The storm tracks offered little hope for 'contest-worthy' snows over the forecast area through the end of Week2.

Not to put to fine a point on any numerical forecast past D+3...but today/s D+10 and beyond progs showed a notable shift from the previous storm tracks during the same time. Storms have taken on an ENE trajectory with arctic air positioned to their north instead of a rapid increase in latitude toward the NNE coming out of the GOM.

One model run does not a trend make. No way to tell whether this change is a one hit wonder or is the beginning of real shift in the forecast.