CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 14-APR-18 @ 9 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

19th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Brad Yehl
2nd Place: Don Sutherland
3rd Place: NWS ER WFOs
HM: Herb @MAWS

17th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Don Sutherland
2nd Place: Mitchel Volk
3rd Place: Brad Yehl
Climo: 5th place

Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here

16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Coming Attractions

Various analyses and LR forecasts for early FEB abound the Internets. Most have a decidedly warm flavor yet today/s 12z GooFuS may be the first indication those outlooks wil turn on their collective heads.

LR progs over the past several days have shown a triad of low latitude storms rising from the Gulf 'o Mexico with plus-size warm sectors full of moist air assaulting the Northeast and mid-Atlantic regions. The storm tracks offered little hope for 'contest-worthy' snows over the forecast area through the end of Week2.

Not to put to fine a point on any numerical forecast past D+3...but today/s D+10 and beyond progs showed a notable shift from the previous storm tracks during the same time. Storms have taken on an ENE trajectory with arctic air positioned to their north instead of a rapid increase in latitude toward the NNE coming out of the GOM.

One model run does not a trend make. No way to tell whether this change is a one hit wonder or is the beginning of real shift in the forecast.

No comments: