CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 14-APR-18 @ 9 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

19th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Brad Yehl
2nd Place: Don Sutherland
3rd Place: NWS ER WFOs
HM: Herb @MAWS

17th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Don Sutherland
2nd Place: Mitchel Volk
3rd Place: Brad Yehl
Climo: 5th place

Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here

16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Thursday, January 31, 2008

Right Forecast - Wrong Reason

Newsweek blogger Sharon Begley has posted a mid-season review of Dr. Judah Cohen/s (AER...Inc.) long-range '07 / '08 winter forecast.

Cohen/s "...forecast calls for a cold start to December in the East and a mild early January, followed by a possible return to the deep freeze around Martin Luther King's birthday" (emphasis added).

He attributes these events to "...extensive snow cover in Siberia (which) sets in motion a train of meteorological events, with energy waves propagating to the stratosphere, where they weaken the vortex of winds over the North Pole."

Begley gives Cohen/s forecast high marks. "Don’t say we didn’t warn you. Anyone, especially in the northeast and Midwest, who is surprised by the arctic express that moved in over the weekend and is still gripping most of us today wasn’t paying attention last month.."

Cohen thinks he done good..too. "To predict swings in the weather almost to the day two months in advance should be impossible based on accepted climate theory," he said.

There/s room to argue whether these events have unfolded as forecast; however...the room b/comes quite small about whether Cohen/s physical reasoning was correct. Weakening the "vortex of winds over the North Pole" is a clear reference to the Arctic Oscillation going negative...which as a driver for the cold wx regime in the East...has clearly not been the case.

Right forecast - wrong reason.

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