Ignore-o-sphere Warming

Important signs point toward a sudden warming of the ignore-o-sphere in the coming weeks.

Wind reversal over the Pole...



Temperature reversal...



Warming of constant pressure surfaces from ~100 mb and up occur with a lowering of geo-potential heights. This phenomenon oft times leads to a dramatically colder troposphere...and eventually...a strongly negative AO. Not an unexpected event given the state of this winter/s QBO...which is depicted in the zonal wind chart above as the negative values (i.e., east wind) between 30 and 50 mb over the Equator.

In general...it takes about three weeks for the strat/s warming to work its way down to the near-sfc...all of which suggests a weak...unstable polar vortex...very cold temperatures...and storminess come early FEB.

Jim Hughes...posting @ StormVista...has be tracking the development of this impending event for several weeks and appears to have made a skillful LR forecast for it back in DEC.