CONTEST STATUS - Updated: WED ... 13-DEC-17 @ 8:30 PM EST

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
19th Annual 'Regular Season'
Snow Storm #1
Synoptiscope in VCP32

17th Annual 'Season-total'
Deadline for entries has passed
Forecasters' summary here

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Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
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18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here
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16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Thursday, January 17, 2008

Ignore-o-sphere Warming


Important signs point toward a sudden warming of the ignore-o-sphere in the coming weeks.

Wind reversal over the Pole...



Temperature reversal...



Warming of constant pressure surfaces from ~100 mb and up occur with a lowering of geo-potential heights. This phenomenon oft times leads to a dramatically colder troposphere...and eventually...a strongly negative AO. Not an unexpected event given the state of this winter/s QBO...which is depicted in the zonal wind chart above as the negative values (i.e., east wind) between 30 and 50 mb over the Equator.

In general...it takes about three weeks for the strat/s warming to work its way down to the near-sfc...all of which suggests a weak...unstable polar vortex...very cold temperatures...and storminess come early FEB.

Jim Hughes...posting @ StormVista...has be tracking the development of this impending event for several weeks and appears to have made a skillful LR forecast for it back in DEC.

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