CONTEST STATUS - Last update: THU ... 20-APR-17 @ 9:40 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

19th Annual 'Regular Season'

---
17th Annual 'Season-total'

----------------------------------------------------
Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
----------------------------------------------------
18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here
---
16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Late Winter Rally

PhotobucketWhat could portend the start of a late winter rally and extra innings into March...the global models today were again dangling shiny objects before our eyes in their medium range forecasts.

Today/s ECMWF depicts an amplifying long-wave pattern over the CONUS beginning in a few days...with low-latitude cyclogenesis occurring ahead of a positively-tilted trof...and a potent nor'easter attending arctic HIGH pressure in the chamber for the last week of meteorological winter.

GooFuS offering up a similar idea...albiet a different evolution...as well.

Last snowfall forecasting event was almost three weeks ago. High time for another.

Once the storm passes...NWP suggests another arctic outbreak in the offing.

Note the deep-layer easterlies at high latitude (negative zonal wind (u) at 500 mb ==> flow into the board)...evidence of a very weak / non-existent polar vortex...and an easterly arctic jet at 10 m/s...both of which indicate favorable conditions for an arctic outbreak into the mid-latitudes.

Is this the manifestation to the sudden warming of the stratosphere observed at the end of January? If so...the timing would be right on schedule.

Also interesting is the ~10 m/s west wind over the equator in the 30 / 50 mb layer...evidence of QBO-west maintaining its strength.

No comments: