Pattern Change Ahead?

The predominant storm track this winter has been up the spine of the Appalachian Mountains with a secondary axis established in DEC a bit farther north and west from MO through MI.

NWP has been advertising a change in recent runs...shifting the axis to the south and east...possibly the result of a robust -NAO state suppressing the storm track toward lower latitudes and offering the prospect of winter weather for the snow-starved mid-Atlantic region. The forecast for change dove-tails nicely with the climatological peak for snowfall in this area.

The first...and weakest...in a series of waves is progged to move through the southeastern states this weekend...primarily as a rain maker with some snow under the northern edge of the precipitation shield...followed by a second...stronger LOW southern portions of the mid-Atlantic early next week...followed by another... stronger wave a few days later. Going beyond that is getting deep into fantasy-land; however...the models currently show two more storms to round out the month.

Trends have shown better cold in the lowest layers and HIGH pressure positioned north of some surface LOWs. The fact that the models aren/t showing 'perfect' setups at this time-range is all the more reason to be optimistic.

While we wait for events to unfold...give a read to the post by Baltimore Sun/s Frank Roylance about the historic Blizzard of FEB 10...1899.