Snow Storm #8: NO SHOW

(updated below - Update2)

Originally posted MON...16 FEb 2009

12z progs were not at all encouraging.

Their portrayal of the storm complex continued essentially as a cold rain-maker for much of the forecast area with a sliver of decent snows falling beneath the northern edge of the precipitation shield.

Only four...maybe five...stations appear to be good candidates for more than a nuisance snowfall late Wednesday into Thursday. Favorable antecedent arctic air mass with dew points in the teens...breaks down quickly with the on-set of widespread veering...SE-to-SW wind profiles which are expected to dominant the storm environment.

GooFuS depicts better chances in the medium range with another potential forecasting opportunity next weekend.

Snow storm #8 awaits another day.

UPDATE:
02/17/00z progs indicate little...if any significant change to the 12z suite of solutions other than to delay on-set of precipitation by ~3 hrs at most forecast stations. Initially cold boundary layers warm to above freezing in response to unfavorable warm air advection vertical wind profiles which strongly suggest little...if any potential for a contest-worthy storm.

UPDATE2:
Verification of US model guidance of expected snowfall over the forecast area was +/-reasonable...

Storm Total Precipitation (inches observed)
CON - 7"
CAR - 4.7"
BGM - 3.8"
PWM - 3.5"
BGR - 3.4"
BTV - 2.1"
ALB - 2.1"
ORH - incomplete data (>= 2.3")

Elsewhere...plenty-o-trace amounts and < 1" reports.

Another good fall for CON...so...what/s up with that...anyway?

74" YTD. +31" departure.
Same time last year? 88"!

CON/s '08 total snowfall barely set an all-time record. LR progs suggest little change in established storm track...so more snow to come. Winter '09 could very well make it into the Top-10.

Image: Niagara Falls