CONTEST STATUS - Updated: WED...26-NOV-14 @ 11:15 AM EST

Winter '14 / '15 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

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16th Annual 'Regular Season'
STORM #1:
Deadline for entries has passed.
RAW forecasts here.
Forecasts here

STORM #2
Synoptiscope in VCP32

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14th Annual 'Season-total'
Call for Forecasts!
Deadline 11:59 PM EST SUN 30-NOV-14
Details here
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Monday, February 1, 2010

Winter '09 / '10 - Snow Storm #3 - Final Results

NEWxSFC Senior forecaster ilibov has won this season/s third snowfall forecast contest with a SUMSQ error of 85.3"...a 52% improvement over the average SUMSQ error of 176". Ilibov/s Z-score was a very strong -1.711.

Ilibov also placed 1st in every other categoory. 'Total absolute error' 25.9" (Z-score: -1.850)...'average absolute error' of 1.08" per station (24 stations forecast)....'storm total precipitation' error 3.1"...and an R-SQ of 67.7%.

Ilibov had the lowest station errors @BWI and DCA.

Congratulations Ilibov!

2nd Place: Shillelagh (SUMSQ error: 137.4"; Z-score: -0.727)
3rd Place: millersville_bauers* (140.6"; -0.668)
Honorable Mention: nnjwxguy78 (150.3; -0.483)

*Rookie

Full forecast verification...storm summary...and final results at the Contest web site here.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Good work Ilibov. TQ you could add ACY to your list of stations that beat max forecast.

I've heard that RIC really had more than eight inches but I guess it blows away there (into the backyards of Easternuswx weenies apparently).

Slowly catching on to this snowfall forecasting, really thought RDU would get buried but a few miles away from the sleet boundary. -- Roger Smith

TQ said...

You are correct about ACY... Roger. Thanks for the eagle-eye.

You are also correct about RIC measuring more the 8". The added accums came early SUN AM with passage of the upper LOW; altho...it happened after the verification window closed.

The models really gave the mid-Atlantic a head fake by keeping the QPF suppressed so far south.

ACY observed 2nd highest storm-totals...yet the model runs closest to the event gave them virtually bupkis.

Anonymous said...

Sorry, wasn't meaning to suggest an error in the contest, just an error at RIC measuring the snow on the 30th, or more to the point, many reports from surrounding observers of 10-12 inch snowfalls, someone commented that the airport site suffers from being too exposed and the snow blows away.

I guess this is true of all airports (except BTV). -- RS

TQ said...

No apologies needed...Roger. This observation / question comes up from time to time.

RIC/s report seemed reasonable given the SN:H20 ratio was comparable to surrounding stations and amounts reported by CO-OP observers.