Winter '09 / '10 - Snow Storm #5 - The Forecasts

Forecaster Summary

Forecasts in the table below are ranked by storm total precipitation (STP) in ascending order. Blue (red) STP values are below (above) the 25th (75th) percentile of all forecast STPs.

Average STP (181.5") per average number of stations (24) forecast: 7.6".

21 entries...including five Rookies... one who has entered their first contest this winter...three Interns...two Journeyman...and 11 Senior forecasters...issued 509 station forecasts for the winter/s 5th contest snow storm.

Two entries were disqualified; one b/c the forecast included one station only and one was submitted well past the deadline.

Everyone's station forecasts have been posted on the Contest's web site.

Consensus for a northern mid-Atlantic and coastal SNE event.

Arctic Oscillation (AO) remains well below zero.  North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has dipped to more than one standard deviation below its mean in response to hi-latitude blocking in the vicinity of Iceland.  Pacific-North American (PNA) above one standard deviation indicating amplified westerlies across NOAM.

Parent LOW over OH put down light snowfall today.  Triple-point / secondary development over GA at 21z has moved to the coastal waters of South Carolina at post time.  Miller 'B' storm progged to come up the coast tonight and tomorrow...side-swiping coastal sections of the mid-Atlantic and SNE.

Verification period ends 11:59 PM EST...WED 10-FEB-10.

Preliminary storm-total snowfall amountst will be posted the evening of THU 11-FEB-10.