Winter '09 / '10 - Snow Storm #4 - Final Results
NEWxSFC Rookie forecaster Roger Smith has won this season/s 4th snowfall forecast contest with a SUMSQ error of 392.2"...a 55% improvement over the average SUMSQ error of 876". His Z-score was a respectable -1.218.
Roger also placed 1st in the 'average absolute error' category with an average error of 2.7" per station (24 stations forecast).
He had the lowest station errors @BOS...MDT...BWI...and ORF.
Congratulations Roger Smith!
2nd Place: catatonia (SUMSQ error: 493.2"; Z-score: -0.964)
3rd Place: wxfox51* (500.5"; -0.946)
Honorable Mention: herb @ maws (521"; -0.894)
*Rookie
Full forecast verification...storm summary...and final results at the Contest web site.
Roger also placed 1st in the 'average absolute error' category with an average error of 2.7" per station (24 stations forecast).
He had the lowest station errors @BOS...MDT...BWI...and ORF.
Congratulations Roger Smith!
2nd Place: catatonia (SUMSQ error: 493.2"; Z-score: -0.964)
3rd Place: wxfox51* (500.5"; -0.946)
Honorable Mention: herb @ maws (521"; -0.894)
*Rookie
Full forecast verification...storm summary...and final results at the Contest web site.
2 comments:
Thanks, I lucked out a bit there, but to give credit where due, some copy has gone missing and it was "wxfrisch" who had the best forecasts at those four stations.
I was impressed by the verifying 30-inch plus forecasts made by several people for IAD.
This was definitely a Nick Faldo eighteen-par sort of win, but save my seat at the back of the bus. -- Roger Smith
Nicely done...Roger.
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