CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SUN...20-JUL-14 @ 7:35 PM EDT

Winter '14 / '15 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

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16th Annual 'Regular Season'

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14th Annual 'Season-total'

Saturday, January 29, 2011

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #5 - Final Results

1st - nnjwxguy78
SUMSQ: 327.44
SUMSQ Z: -1.369
STP: 5.00 (1)
TAE: 70.70 (2)
AAE: 2.83 (4)

2nd - Mitchel Volk
SUMSQ: 377.41
SUMSQ Z: -1.086
STP: 38.40 (5)
TAE: 73.00 (4)
AAE: 2.70 (2)

3rd - donsutherland1
SUMSQ: 436.72
SUMSQ Z: -0.750
STP: 45.65 (8)
TAE: 70.15 (1)
AAE: 2.70 (1)

Honorable mention - ejbauers
SUMSQ: 448.55
SUMSQ Z: -0.683
STP: 55.55 (9)
TAE: 71.65 (3)
AAE: 2.76 (3)

SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(rank)

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Full forecast verification and summary at the Contest/s home page.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Congrats to the winners here, this was a tough storm to forecast.

Just wondering, do we have any current figures for total snowfall at the various contest locations?

I have the feeling we are all going to bust way low on most of them. -- Roger Smith

TQ said...

Hard to predict snow totals when TSSNs are observed. Without deep moisture convection...this would have a been a run-of-the mill event.

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For the season-total contest..I get the monthly snowfall totals from the CLM...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=CLMABE&max=61

Month-to-date the totals in the CLI...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=CLIABE&max=61

and CF6 bulletins.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=CF6ABE&max=61