CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 14-APR-18 @ 9 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

19th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Brad Yehl
2nd Place: Don Sutherland
3rd Place: NWS ER WFOs
HM: Herb @MAWS

17th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Don Sutherland
2nd Place: Mitchel Volk
3rd Place: Brad Yehl
Climo: 5th place

Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here

16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Monday, January 24, 2011

Winter '10 / '11 - Stratospheric Warming - Take 4

Meant to post this over the weekend. Subsequent runs of the ECMWF have continued with the idea of a weakening polar vortex by month/s end suggesting a warming in the stratosphere with implications for cold temperatures toward the end of meteorological winter.

Note how the strong 85 m/s (~170 kts) PV in the left panel weakens to 35 m/s (~70 kts) by D+10 where the deep-layer blue highlights near 90°N indicates an east wind.  Favorable conditions are indicated for the Arctic Oscillation to fall well below zero in late February.

Not that significant warmth is expected anytime soon as the NAO ridge retrogrades toward Greenland and PNA remains positive with the most northern extension of the ridge reaching well above the Arctic Circle.  Short-wave energy migrating from this hi-latitude into the base of a deep eastern trough brings great potential to spin-up strong coastal storms off the SE CONUS.

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