Winter '10 / '11 - WSI Expects Warm FEB

"“The end of the recent long-lived and extreme North Atlantic blocking episode, along with a return to more dateline blocking typical of late winter La Nina regimes, should result in a return of colder weather to the western half of the US in February while the eastern US finally experiences more moderate temperatures,” said WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford."

FEB - warmer
MAR - colder
APR - colder
More...

Winter's seasonal forecast for the northeast from WSI...
DEC - colder
JAN - warmer
FEB - warmer

"“The recent behavior of the North Atlantic Oscillation, along with the fact that current and recent atmospheric/oceanic patterns have closely resembled those from the 1950s-1970s period, has reinforced our hypothesis that there may have been a fundamental climate shift in 2008 that will result in weather patterns more similar to those found 40-60 years ago,” Dr. Crawford added."

Crawford/s reference to the NAO's recent behavior may be related to the index's 5-year moving average falling below zero for the first time in more than two decades. This chart shows the historical tendency for the NAO's moving average for meteorological winter (D-J-F) to remain positive or negative once the shift occurs.