CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SUN ... 07-DEC-14 @ 6:30 PM EST

Winter '14 / '15 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

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16th Annual 'Regular Season'
STORM #2
Synoptiscope in VCP32

STORM #1 (26/27-NOV-14):
FINAL results here

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14th Annual 'Season-total'
Forecasts here.
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Sunday, December 11, 2011

Winter '11 / '12 - Arctic Oscillation - Near Record High - Part 2

Last Sunday...the Arctic Oscillation (AO) reached a near-record high of 5.647...or did it?
CPC has revised their data...without comment...for several days between 02-DEC and 08-DEC.

Old data...
12/2  2.928
12/3  4.830
12/4  5.647
12/5  4.850
12/6  4.762
12/7  4.674
12/8  4.586

New data...
12/2  2.051
12/3  4.394
12/4  3.443
12/5  3.424
12/6  3.954
12/7  3.075
12/8  1.653

Despite the change...the AO is still damn too high...altho the ECMWF has been signaling the past few runs this may be about to change...albeit not until early January...if the PV breaks in two and a sudden stratospheric warming event develops as suggested by yesterday/s 240hr 100mb prog and the split continues its upward propagation.


JMA observing 10 mb temperatures on the way up!

2 comments:

Toni Lund said...

I have contaced CPC regarding the revised AO data but I haven't received any explanation yet.

TQ said...

Good luck getting a response.

I have tried to contact them several times over the years without much luck...especially if the message went to the webmaster.

CPC @
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml has posted...

"Note: We are aware that the AO index page is having problems. It will be fixed as soon as we can, and please bear with us during this inconvenience."