CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 10-SEP-16 @ 2222 LT

Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
18th Annual 'Regular Season'
!!! - Starts as soon as the flakes start flying - !!!

16th Annual 'Season-total'
Enter your forecast at the web site between 01-NOV and 30-NOV

Winter '15 / '16 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
17th Annual 'Regular Season'
No FINAL standings
Too few storms (2)

The two-thirds rule; forecasters are eligible for ranking in the final standings if they entered at least two-thirds of all storm contests. With only two contest-worthy storms this season ... those forecasters with one entry only would have been ineligible.

In the interest of fairness; three storms seems like the minimum.

15th Annual 'Season-total'
Verified forecasts here

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Winter '11 / '12 - White Christmas Probabilities

Updated below

White Christmas in the US is defined as 1" on-the-ground on 25-DEC.  The criteria are different in other countries.

The probability of an event is determined by dividing the number of times something happened by the number of time it could have happened.  If there was a white Christmas five times over 20 years...the probability is 25% in any given year.

This NCDC map is a little dated b/c it's based on the old 1961 - 1990 period of climate normals.  Good enough for our purposes.


Folklore predictions...
- A green Christmas; a white Easter.

- If there's thunder during Christmas week...
The Winter will be anything but meek.

- The nearer the New Moon to Christmas Day...the harder the Winter.   [ed.  - new moon is 24-DEC!]

- If Christmas day be bright and clear
There’ll be two winters in the year.

- Thunder in December presages fine weather.
[ed. - somewhat at odds with 'thunder during Christmas week]

- Like in December like all the year long.
[ed. - does this face forward or backward?]

The NWS has updated their white Christmas probabilities map based on the current 30-year climo period between 1981 and 2010...

Note there is one fewer classes in the new map.  The '< 5%' class has been combined with the '5-10%' class into one '< 10%' class...which is not an improvement for snow crows living along the map's southern boundary. 

Also note the classes are not represented by equal sizes.  Some are 15%-points...some are 10%-points...some are less than 10%-points.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Sadly, I am old enough to recall that there was thunder on Christmas Eve and New Years Eve in 1965 in northern New Jersey some rookie, huh?). We were visiting there at the time (I never lived in the U.S. but I have visited at least a hundred times). Well, you can see what happened after that, a pretty good shot of winter in late January. -- Roger Smith