Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Winter '11 / '12 - Season Opener?

GooFuS has been busy pumping out promising progs with shiny stellar dendrites dangling over the forecast area this weekend for what could turn out to be this winter/s season opener contest-worthy snow storm.


The storm is forecast to organize as a frontal wave over the lower MS river valley then reaches the east coast along the mid-Atlantic positioned below a weak but building arctic HIGH over the Canadian Maritime provinces late Saturday.


There's a icy cold column rich with moisture and fat bulge of WAA in the 700-800 mb layer over ALB @105hr from today/s 12z initialization.  Surface layer is an arctic air mass with temperature and dew point in the teens despite low level easterlies.

For all the talk about how critically important it is for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to be in a negative state for decent snowfalls over the forecast area...it'll be the Arctic Oscillation (AO) going negative (-1.313 @post-time) and riding to the rescue (again).

---
A 'Call for Forecasts' will be issued Thursday evening if the forecast continues its current trend.  The deadline would be Friday @10:30 PM EST.

No comments: