CONTEST STATUS - Updated: MON ... 30-MAY-16 @ NOON ET

Winter '15 / '16 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

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17th Annual 'Regular Season'

Season has ended.
No FINAL results this year.
Too few storms (2).

According to the two-thirds rule; forecasters are eligible for inclusion in final standings if they entered
at least two-thirds of all contests. Since there were only two storms this season ... the two-thirds rule was not satisfied
and final standings cannot be determined.

Snow Storm #2
FINAL Results here

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15th Annual 'Season-total'
Verified forecasts here

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Winter '11 / '12 - Sudden Stratospheric Warming Watch - Update 5

The initial minor warming event @10 mb...which began 25-DEC-11...is fading as a second warming gets underway on the opposite side of the globe (red shading lower left quadrant).


Note the weakening of the mean zonal wind in the upper 10 mb centered around 01-JAN-12 (upper right corner) which reflects dissipation of the initial minor warming event.


Elsewhere in the Ignorosphere...temperatures have been steadily warming at 30 mb over the North Pole and intersecting the long-term mean.


European NWP breaks down the polar vortex and reverses its flow @D+10 (blue shading = east flow) and depicts mean easterlies in the hi-latitude troposphere (lower right corner) which builds a deep anti-cyclone...


American NWP forecasts for the northern annular oscillations (AO / NAO) and the Pacific North American (PNA) indexes are all heading in a favorable direction...




Previous update here.

2 comments:

Toni Lund said...

TQ, have you noticed that CPC still changes, revises, corrects, whatever, the AO index? It was just recently slightly negative but not anymore. And by the way, I have not received any explanation from them for my enquiry.

TQ said...

Haven't done a full validation but the indexes seem to have stabilized recently.