CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SUN ... 07-DEC-14 @ 6:30 PM EST

Winter '14 / '15 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

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16th Annual 'Regular Season'
STORM #2
Synoptiscope in VCP32

STORM #1 (26/27-NOV-14):
FINAL results here

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14th Annual 'Season-total'
Forecasts here.
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Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Winter '11 / '12 - Sudden Stratospheric Warming Watch - Update 5

The initial minor warming event @10 mb...which began 25-DEC-11...is fading as a second warming gets underway on the opposite side of the globe (red shading lower left quadrant).


Note the weakening of the mean zonal wind in the upper 10 mb centered around 01-JAN-12 (upper right corner) which reflects dissipation of the initial minor warming event.


Elsewhere in the Ignorosphere...temperatures have been steadily warming at 30 mb over the North Pole and intersecting the long-term mean.


European NWP breaks down the polar vortex and reverses its flow @D+10 (blue shading = east flow) and depicts mean easterlies in the hi-latitude troposphere (lower right corner) which builds a deep anti-cyclone...


American NWP forecasts for the northern annular oscillations (AO / NAO) and the Pacific North American (PNA) indexes are all heading in a favorable direction...




Previous update here.

2 comments:

Toni Lund said...

TQ, have you noticed that CPC still changes, revises, corrects, whatever, the AO index? It was just recently slightly negative but not anymore. And by the way, I have not received any explanation from them for my enquiry.

TQ said...

Haven't done a full validation but the indexes seem to have stabilized recently.