CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 10-SEP-16 @ 2222 LT

Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
18th Annual 'Regular Season'
!!! - Starts as soon as the flakes start flying - !!!

16th Annual 'Season-total'
Enter your forecast at the web site between 01-NOV and 30-NOV

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Winter '15 / '16 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
17th Annual 'Regular Season'
No FINAL standings
Too few storms (2)

The two-thirds rule; forecasters are eligible for ranking in the final standings if they entered at least two-thirds of all storm contests. With only two contest-worthy storms this season ... those forecasters with one entry only would have been ineligible.

In the interest of fairness;
Three storms seems like the bare minimum

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15th Annual 'Season-total'
Verified forecasts here

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Winter '11 / '12 - Sudden Stratospheric Warming Watch - Update 5

The initial minor warming event @10 mb...which began 25-DEC-11...is fading as a second warming gets underway on the opposite side of the globe (red shading lower left quadrant).


Note the weakening of the mean zonal wind in the upper 10 mb centered around 01-JAN-12 (upper right corner) which reflects dissipation of the initial minor warming event.


Elsewhere in the Ignorosphere...temperatures have been steadily warming at 30 mb over the North Pole and intersecting the long-term mean.


European NWP breaks down the polar vortex and reverses its flow @D+10 (blue shading = east flow) and depicts mean easterlies in the hi-latitude troposphere (lower right corner) which builds a deep anti-cyclone...


American NWP forecasts for the northern annular oscillations (AO / NAO) and the Pacific North American (PNA) indexes are all heading in a favorable direction...




Previous update here.

2 comments:

Toni Lund said...

TQ, have you noticed that CPC still changes, revises, corrects, whatever, the AO index? It was just recently slightly negative but not anymore. And by the way, I have not received any explanation from them for my enquiry.

TQ said...

Haven't done a full validation but the indexes seem to have stabilized recently.