CONTEST STATUS - Updated MON...27-FEB-12 @ 8 PM EST

13th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest - Winter '11 / '12
Storm #2
Call for Forecasts!
Deadline: 10:30 PM EST TUE...28-FEB-12
Details here.

Storm #1
FINAL results here.

11th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest - Winter '11 / '12
Deadline for entries has passed.
Details here.

Sunday, January 1, 2012

Winter '11 / '12 - Meteorological Winter - Month One

One down.
Two to go...altho the Contest does run until the storms stop -- assuming they do get started.

As bad as it/s been for areal snow cover over the forecast area so far this winter...DEC-03 was worse with DEC-06 a close second.


December/s end-of-month snow cover between 2002 (upper left panel) and 2011 (lower right panel).  Images courtesy NOHRSC.

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Disappointed snow crows blame the villainous duo of la Nina...which favors a storm track west of the Appalachian mountains...and the persistently positive state of the Arctic Oscillation from a paucity of hi-latitude blocking.


The above table -- sorted by descending 'percent of climo' -- shows December snowfall totals for the 'season-total' forecast contest stations.  Trace amounts are reported as 0.05.  Green (red) cells are the top (bottom) 25th percentile of values in each column.

Not a single station is even close to normal snow...altho the distribution is typical for a la Nina winter.  December's total 'normal' snowfall is 214".  The month's observed snowfall is 44", a deficit of 169" and a mere 21% of normal.

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