CONTEST STATUS - Updated: WED ... 13-DEC-17 @ 8:30 PM EST

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
19th Annual 'Regular Season'
Snow Storm #1
Synoptiscope in VCP32

17th Annual 'Season-total'
Deadline for entries has passed
Forecasters' summary here

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Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
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18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here
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16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Saturday, February 17, 2007

Contest # 1 - Final Results


Full verification table and summary @ the Contest web site. Follow the links to 'Latest Forecasts' and 'Latest Results.' Finally...a contest snowstorm! Never in the eight-year history of the NE.Wx Snowfall Forecast Contest has the first storm formed so late in the season. In every other year...the first storm appeared no later than the end of December.

This storm was worth the wait. Ever changing progs in the medium range carried into the short-range period making this a difficult forecast. Loaded with sub-tropical moisture...a frisky short wave...and deep enough arctic air...record daily snowfall were observed across portions of central NY and VT. Arctic air lost out closer to the coast where strong maritime influences kept snowfall to a minimum.

1st Place - TQ
SUMSQ Error: 197.1”
SUMSQ - Z: -0.460
STP: 156.6” (4th)
TAE: 52” (2nd)
AAE: 2.08” (1st)

2nd Place - bruced
SUMSQ Error: 216.1”
SUMSQ - Z: -0.450
STP: 165.5” (6th)
TAE: 54.4” (3rd)
AAE: 2.27” (3rd)

3rd Place - donaldsutherland1
SUMSQ Error: 226.6”
SUMSQ - Z: -0.445
STP: 150.25” (1st)
TAE: 54.5” (4th)
AAE: 2.37” (4th)

Honorable Mention - noreasterjer07
SUMSQ Error: 253.5” (4th)
SUMSQ - Z: -0.427
STP: 188” (13th)
TAE: 49.1” (1st)
AAE: 2.23” (2nd)

SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm total precipitation
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error

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