CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 14-APR-18 @ 9 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

19th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Brad Yehl
2nd Place: Don Sutherland
3rd Place: NWS ER WFOs
HM: Herb @MAWS

17th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Don Sutherland
2nd Place: Mitchel Volk
3rd Place: Brad Yehl
HM: TQ
Climo: 5th place

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Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
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18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here

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16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Friday, February 9, 2007

The ECMWF/s Stealth Miller B


Does today/s 12z ECMWF D+5 forecast a deepening Great Lakes upper LOW capturing and intensifying the M-A surface LOW toward the 'benchmark' @ 40°N / 70°W...


...or does it excite a 'back-door' Miller B and drag it onshore?

The upper LOW is shown coming in the back-door from ern CN instead of its more common direct approach from the NW. The upper LOW would be expected to develop a surface reflection on the E side of the short-wave trof. Given the deep...unstable vertical temperature and moisture profile...cyclogenesis would be rapid and intense.

Note the orthogonal (90°) crossing angle of the MSLP isobars (equivalent to the geostrophic wind @ the boundary layer/s top) and 5H Z to the E of the LOW indicating veering vertical shear and strong UVM from WAA. These dynamics will build the downstream short-wave ridge enhanced by the release of latent heat and slow the easterly progression of the upper air features.

The low resolution of the model post-processing may prevent the depiction of this feature.

Should the 'back-door' scenario come to pass...the snows over the M-A would pale in comparison.

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