CONTEST STATUS - Last update: FRI ... 14-JUL-17 @ 8:30 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
19th Annual 'Regular Season'
Season starts when the first flakes start a'flyin'

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17th Annual 'Season-total'
Entries accepted between 01-NOV-17 and 30-NOV-17
Verification period: 01-DEC-17 through 31-MAR-18

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Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
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18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here
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16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Friday, February 9, 2007

The ECMWF/s Stealth Miller B


Does today/s 12z ECMWF D+5 forecast a deepening Great Lakes upper LOW capturing and intensifying the M-A surface LOW toward the 'benchmark' @ 40°N / 70°W...


...or does it excite a 'back-door' Miller B and drag it onshore?

The upper LOW is shown coming in the back-door from ern CN instead of its more common direct approach from the NW. The upper LOW would be expected to develop a surface reflection on the E side of the short-wave trof. Given the deep...unstable vertical temperature and moisture profile...cyclogenesis would be rapid and intense.

Note the orthogonal (90°) crossing angle of the MSLP isobars (equivalent to the geostrophic wind @ the boundary layer/s top) and 5H Z to the E of the LOW indicating veering vertical shear and strong UVM from WAA. These dynamics will build the downstream short-wave ridge enhanced by the release of latent heat and slow the easterly progression of the upper air features.

The low resolution of the model post-processing may prevent the depiction of this feature.

Should the 'back-door' scenario come to pass...the snows over the M-A would pale in comparison.

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