Snow Storms...They/re Only A Week Away

5H Z and MSLP


85H T and MSLP

MR models are at it again with teaser progs for this winter/s first significant EC snow storm and as usual...it/s just a week away.

This 'now-you-see-it...now-you don/t' scenario has played itself out several times this season. Sooner or later...odds are the atmosphere will get around to pulling the trigger instead of our thumb.

Today/s D+7 prog from the ECMWF depicts a classic cold air damming signature over the NE with strong arctic HIGH pressure centered over the Upper Great Lakes...supported downstream by an area of mid-level confluence...multiple sea-level isobars nosing SW along the Appalachian Mtns as far south as the GA / SC border...and an inverted trof along the SE seaboard indicative of a coastal front.



One big problem with the setup @ this point is the progressive nature of the flow regime as multiple short-waves are shown embedded in the westerlies. This suggests the storm might not be inclined to hang a left and hug the coast as it continues NE.