Standby for Contest #1! - Again

What could be this winter/s one and only contest storm appears likely to affect a good portion of the M-A and SNE early next week. MR progs continue to depict a strong frontal wave forming over the GOM states. The storm forecast track takes it ENE across the M-A on its way toward the western Atlantic Ocean where it undergoes cyclogenesis as it passes the benchmark @ 40°N / 70°W.

An easterly extension of the parent HIGH pressure...centered over western CN...into SNE and northern portions of the M-A will play a key role in determining the position of the RN / SN line.

Latest trend analysis shows the edge of 32°F SFC isotherm creeping slowly N + W with time. Should the trend continue...best snows would fall INVOF the DCA - BWI area. The main caveat in play...even within 24 hrs of the event...is NWP models long-held difficulty in resolving the southern extent of low-level arctic air. The models often fail to forecast the freeze line far enough south wrt to the verifying analysis.

If the upper LOW INVOF the Great Lakes is able to capture the surface LOW and pull it toward the coast...big snows would be in store for SNE...too.