CONTEST STATUS - Updated: FRI ... 14-JUL-17 @ 8:30 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
19th Annual 'Regular Season'
Season starts when the first flakes start a'flyin'

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17th Annual 'Season-total'
Entries accepted between 01-NOV-17 and 30-NOV-17
Verification period: 01-DEC-17 through 31-MAR-18

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Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
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18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here
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16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Saturday, January 3, 2009

NOAM Temperature Departures - December '08

A notably...nay brutally...cold December was heralded for the eastern CONUS by many well-known LR wx forecasters as meteorological winter approached.

Offered for your consideration...a cumulative temperature departure animation for NOAM here.

Northeastern CONUS temperatures never did observe negative anomalies...nor did the mid-Atlantic region except for a brief period centered around the 8th. The negative anomaly centroid was over the SE for much of the month before retrograding into the upper Plains.

End-of-month snapshot of precipitation departures.



Note main storm track running NE through MO - IL - MI and secondary axis from MS - TN - WV continuing into New England.

The primary storm track is at odds with the statistical correlation between 'NAO - precipitation.' The map below indicates when NAO is positive the storm track runs from MO - IL - MI...as observed during December. Problem is...the daily average NAO for December was -0.281.



The ten-year NAO precipitation correlation time period was selected b/c it excludes the +PDO / +ENSO years that dominated the late 80s and early 90s. The correlation coefficient must be at least +/- 0.6 to be statistically significant.

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