CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 14-APR-18 @ 9 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

19th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Brad Yehl
2nd Place: Don Sutherland
3rd Place: NWS ER WFOs
HM: Herb @MAWS

17th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Don Sutherland
2nd Place: Mitchel Volk
3rd Place: Brad Yehl
Climo: 5th place

Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here

16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Saturday, January 31, 2009

Snow Storm #8: Preview

(updated below - Update II - Update III)


Storm 8 being loaded into the chamber with at least six weeks of winter to go! Could easily be 12+ contest-worthy storms this season...a NEWxSFC record.

Storm 8/s 'Call for Forecasts' may be issued SUN evening...if current model solutions and trends continue. Interesting event unfolding with a number of stations poised to measure wrap-around / comma head accumulations.

Long-wave amplitude forecast to increase rapidly along with shortening wave-lenght...but the flow regime is progressive. HPC decidedly cool to the idea in this afternoon/s 'Heavy snow / Icing' discussion of a winter storm for the east coast...but what do they know?

Today/s 12z NAM and GooFuS flock southern forecast stations beginning late in the day on MON and over most stations on into TUE.

A '2 to 3' hour earlier than usual 'deadline for entries' on MON is being considered to capture snowfall expected over southern forecast stations MON evening. Otherwise...the deadline would have to be SUN evening...which is a long 'a-double scribble' leadtime...given the main event looks to be TUE.

Image: MAR 1888 Blizzard...Newburgh...NY

02/01/00z progs are manna from heaven. NWP puts PHL underneath the crystal factory for 24-hours. Not that it/ll actually happen. Just saying.

02/01/12z progs presenting quite a conundrum. NAM solutions still GO for Storm 8 even though the heaviest precipitation axis has shifted east.

GooFuS puts the storm several hundred miles farther east with no snow depicted for the east coast. 12z GooFuS a significant departure from its 00z and 06z solutions.

Will evaluate 18z runs and proceed from there. A 'Call for Forecasts' is still expected later today with the standard 10:30 PM deadline; although Contest #8 could be canceled on MON if 02/02/00z/12z model runs push the system well offshore.

Cancellation announcement...if required...will be made on the web log and StormVista...not via e-mail.

18z runs of NAM and GFS in good agreement that Storm 8 will not happen TUE / WED.

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